TERRITORIAL DYNAMICS AND SPATIAL METRICS:

ASSESSING URBAN EXPANSION IN A MID-SIZED CITY

Abstract

Urban populations have grown rapidly, driving intense expansion of urban areas, especially in cities of developing countries. These challenges have led to new regulations and policies aimed at more sustainable urban development. In Brazil, zoning – usually included in master plans as a tool for urban environmental management – defines city functions and sets limits based on physical and environmental conditions affected by growth. Yet, master plans often fall short when put into practice by local governments. In most cases, peripheral and extensive urbanization stems from policies that prioritize local economic growth over the regulation of urban expansion. Despite this, studies that evaluate how master plans are implemented, their territorial outcomes, and their links to local land management remain scarce. This study examines how urban territorial governance shapes the implementation of master plans and explores the spatial patterns of urban growth in a medium-sized city in São Paulo State (Araraquara-SP). Using quantitative methods, including spatial analyses and metrics, the research identifies discrepancies and non-random patterns in growth across different municipal administrations. The findings show that distinct political periods produced very different growth outcomes, even under the same master plan. These results suggest that local territorial governance capacity strongly influences how master plans are carried out, especially through the enforcement – or lack – of planning regulations. The study highlights the imbalance between restrictions on land supply and the opportunities for more sustainable urban development.